The Model That Saved Us From Forecast Hell

ReBorn Designs / Read Time: 6 min

"I'll pass."

That's exactly what I almost told Jackie when she messaged me on LinkedIn about a sandal collaboration.

After recently returning to my freelance journey, I was laser-focused on building my portfolio with established footwear brands. This small-batch sandal project seemed like a distraction—nice, but not aligned with where I thought my career was heading.

I was dead wrong.

That was my first solo collaboration and bringing a design to market in 1 month. I had to wear many hats, form a new relationship, learn about domestic on-demand manufacturing, establish a logo, ecomm website, and learn how to network.

But more importantly, it revealed a fundamental shift in manufacturing that most footwear companies are completely unprepared for.

In today's newsletter, I'll share:

• Why the traditional 18-month development cycle is creating massive market vulnerability

• The technical requirements to make on-demand production economically viable

• How this model eliminates the industry's persistent 40% product failure rate

• Why designers who understand both traditional and on-demand systems will soon be the most valuable players in footwear

If you're struggling with long development cycles and market forecast anxiety, there's a better way forward. Book a free Discovery Call to learn how we're helping brands adapt to this production revolution.

The Broken Promise of "Scale"

When Jackie explained her business model, I was skeptical.

No minimum orders. Production triggered by actual sales. Made in the USA.

"I’m not sure" was my first thought, I hadn’t done a solo collaboration before or taken a design to market in 1 month. I was used to bigger scale corporate footwear.

But scaling wasn't the point. Responsiveness was.

Her approach eliminated an industry-wide problem I'd seen repeatedly: the massive disconnect between development decisions and market reality that leads to 70% of designs never launching.

Just look at the standard footwear development timeline:

• Design initiated 18 months before market

• Based on trend forecasts from 6-12 months prior

• Committed to production 9-12 months before launch

• No substantial adjustments possible in final 6 months

That's a 2-3 year gap between concept and consumer.

When economic conditions shift—as they inevitably do—brands are locked into production commitments that no longer match market realities.

I've watched these destroy margins. Products that seemed perfect during development arrive in a completely different economic climate, forcing margin-killing discounts just to move inventory.

Jackie's model eliminated this problem entirely.

From Skeptic to Convert in 30 Days

Our espadrille sandal collection went from concept to market in under a month—with zero inventory risk.

The results were immediate:

• 42% gross margins (higher than most traditional models)

• Zero excess inventory or discounting

• Real-time design adjustments based on actual customer feedback

But the real revelation wasn't the numbers. It was how this approach fundamentally transformed the entire development process.

Traditional development feels like betting on horses months before the race. On-demand production is like adjusting your strategy while the race is happening.

40% of products that reach the market fail commercially. 

On-demand models can potentially eliminate this waste entirely.

The Technical Foundation of On-Demand Footwear

Let's get specific about what makes this approach viable, because it's not suitable for every footwear category yet.

The technical requirements include:

1. Componentization

   • Modular design systems with interchangeable parts

   • Standardized lasts across multiple styles

   • Pre-made outsole components ready for attachment

   • Upper patterns optimized for small-batch efficiency

2. Digital Infrastructure

   • 3D visualization with accurate material rendering

   • Parametric design systems for quick modifications

   • Automated tech packs that adjust to size variations

   • Direct digital-to-production workflows

3. Production Agility

   • Cross-trained manufacturing teams

   • Multi-purpose equipment adaptable to style changes

   • Just-in-time component supply management

   • Quality control systems effective at low quantities

When I first saw Jackie's production facility, I was struck by how efficient it felt from the massive factories I'd visited in Asia. This wasn't scaled-down mass production—it was an entirely different approach.

Each station was designed for quick changeovers. Digital patterns eliminated traditional tooling. Materials were selected for versatility across styles.

The system wasn't just smaller; it was smarter.

Where Early AI Adoption Meets On-Demand Production

When I began exploring AI tools like Midjourney and Newarc for design visualization years ago, I faced resistance. "That's not real design," some colleagues argued.

What I couldn't articulate then—but is obvious now—is how critical these tools are for enabling on-demand production models.

The integration creates a powerful infrastructure:

• Customer feedback instantly visualized as new design options

• Production-ready files generated directly from approved designs

• Material and cost implications calculated in real-time

• Virtual sampling replacing physical prototypes

As I demonstrated during my Stride 2025 workshop, many executives admitted they were behind on implementing these tools—yet they recognized the competitive advantage they create.

In traditional production, AI tools merely speed up existing processes. In on-demand models, they fundamentally transform how products are conceptualized and delivered.

Why This Model Works (And Where It Doesn't)

On-demand production isn't right for every situation. It excels with:

• Products with unpredictable demand curves

• Styles with strong visual elements but standard construction

• Items where customization adds significant value

• Categories with high inventory obsolescence risk

It struggles with:

• Performance footwear requiring extensive tooling investment

• Products with complex, labor-intensive construction

• Extremely price-sensitive market segments

• Styles requiring specialized manufacturing expertise

The future isn't about choosing between traditional and on-demand models. It's about strategically deploying each where they create maximum value.

As I shared in my newsletter on {Brand DNA}, the brands that will thrive understand how to maintain consistent identity across production models.

Preparing for the Hybrid Future

Whether you're at a global brand, an emerging label, or working independently, the on-demand shift demands attention:

1. Evaluate your line for on-demand potential Identify products with unpredictable demand or high inventory risk

2. Invest in digital design capabilities Develop skills in parametric modeling and digital material rendering

3. Build relationships with agile manufacturing partners Find facilities experimenting with flexible production methods

4. Test micro-launches before full-scale commitment Use on-demand models to validate concepts before traditional production

This week, select one upcoming style and consider: What would it take to produce this on-demand? The gap between your current capabilities and this approach reveals your most valuable development opportunities.

Jackie's message could have been deleted in seconds. I could’ve stayed in the corporate footwear space where I focused on designs, but the real value was experiencing a production model that could fundamentally change our industry.

Sometimes, the best opportunities are the ones you almost say no to.

Ready to explore how on-demand models might fit into your production strategy? 

Let's talk.

Cheers!
Erin

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